The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . I think we needed somebody like him.. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. A lot of people think things are. Medicare is becoming a joke. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Its just stupid, she said. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. He is his own worst enemy.. Two states have announced recounts. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. I think its very political right now, honestly. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. The counties are also mostly small and rural. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Our roads need to be fixed. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Theres significant variability among them though. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. People need to get a job, get out and work. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Im not happy with either party. We have become so divided. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. And its never going to come back.. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Required fields are marked *. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. On . Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. I dont listen to the news. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. . Weve never done that before.. He says Democratic Gov. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Vance. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Their fear is real, mine is. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . The counties are also mostly small and rural. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Im looking at both sides of it. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. He pissed off a lot of people. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. I dont watch TV. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. She shook her head at the high price of gas. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later.

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